Forecasting and planning

Summer Forecast

The STATFOR Medium-term Forecast published in February 2012 predicted that between 2012 and 2014, the average annual baseline traffic growth will be 1% at European level.

Since then, the Two-year Forecast on Flight Movements published in May 2012 confirmed that traffic has been quite close to the previous forecast within Europe, although the arrivals/departures and European overflights have not grown as much as was predicted. The result to mid-May is an accumulated difference of 0.36 percentage points below the February forecast.

Delays in summer 2012 are likely to remain above the target at a small number of Area Control Centre (ACCs) facing a shortage of qualified controllers and unresolved staff management issues. Planned reductions in capacity during the implementation of major ATM system upgrades and/or airspace structure reorganisations in some ACCs could also push delays up.

It is likely that States on the critical South-East axis (the region stretching from Turkey, including Italy, the southern part of Germany and Moldova) will continue to experience increased growth in local demand. This inescapable fact highlights the continuing need for robust capacity planning - and the need to focus on the timely implementation of enhancement measures.

For more information, contact the STATFOR Team.

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The Network Operations Plan

Robust capacity planning is addressed in the Network Operations Plan – NOP.

The NOP describes the operational actions that the Network Manager and other stakeholders will adopt so that they can meet the performance targets laid out in the Performance Framework of the Single European Sky (SESII) package.

The NOP details the network management functions and activities; it is based on the Network Strategy Plan and provides a common mechanism for planning and operations across Europe.

The Network Operations Plan provides a short- to medium-term outlook of how the ATM Network will operate, including expected performance at network and local levels.

It gives details of capacity and flight efficiency enhancement measures planned both at network level and by each ACC, as well as a description of the airport performance assessment and improvement measures that are planned at those airports which generate a high level of delay.